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With Season 7 halfway done, I have once again updated the probabilities for each Mane Six pony appearing on the show.  Only for the outcome parts, the text will be colored green or red, depending on the outcomes.

Twilight Sparkle

Season 1 Had to appear in every episode in order to write friendship reports to Princess Celestia.
Season 2 Was given absences this season upon allowing her friends to write the reports. 
Season 3 Same as in Season 2.
Season 4 Still had as much major roles as in previous seasons.
Season 5 Same as in Season 4.
Season 6 Upon having Starlight Glimmer take her place this season, had no solo episodes for the first time.
Season 7 Predicted: May have a chance for solo episodes this season.
Outcome: Got at least 4 major roles this season!

Rarity

Season 1 Had the most major roles of the Mane Six, was absent in only two episodes, and had at least one cameo.
Season 2 Only got two major roles and more absences in order to allow the other ponies more screen time.
Season 3 Appeared in every episode but had no major roles. Still, quite an unfair season for Rarity.
Season 4 Had more screen time than in the previous two seasons, but also even more absences (5).
Season 5 Had her only three major roles in a row halfway through this season. Other than that, also had pretty bad luck in the first half of this season and late this season as well.
Season 6 Was needed to appear a lot this season to make up for all that bad luck from Season 5.
Season 7 Predicted: With all goals met after six seasons, expected to get bad luck this season.
Outcome: Is actually doing fine this season, having gotten two major roles the fastest.

Applejack

Season 1 Appeared in all episodes except one.
Season 2 Had three absences, again all within the second half of this season, when by then, she was in for bad luck with not enough major roles.
Season 3 Appeared in all episodes.
Season 4 Only absent twice.
Season 5 For the first time, had much less appearances in the first half of the season than in the second. Talk about bad luck!
Season 6 Same as in Season 5, but with some better luck than in that season.
Season 7 Predicted: Should do better in the first half of this season than in the second, like in early seasons.
Outcome: Actually not doing well so far, as her last chance to catch up is Uncommon Bond.

Rainbow Dash

Season 1 Between the entire Mane Six, had the worst luck with no solo episodes (as Sonic Rainboom was also a Rarity episode).
Season 2 Did fine, but still needed a little more screen time after two seasons.
Season 3 Appeared in every episode, which was somewhat better luck.
Season 4 Had more better luck there.
Season 5 Again, had pretty bad luck like in the first two seasons, with only one solo episode and setting a new record of the smallest number of appearances in one season.
Season 6 Like Rarity, had to appear more this season than in the previous one to make up for all the bad luck (though this didn't happen until about halfway into the season).
Season 7 Predicted: Also like Rarity, having met all of her goals, expected to get bad luck this season.
Outcome: As predicted, is getting pretty bad luck so far, but is also now getting an opportunity to catch up later this season.

Pinkie Pie

Season 1 Did fine this season, but had not as much appearance time as Fluttershy did. Not very good luck there.
Season 2 Had very good luck this season, with plenty of appearance time (mostly in the second half) and no non-speaking appearances, cameos included.
Season 3 Had to lose one episode because of her excellent performance so far in the show.
Season 4 Tied with Season 1 for the biggest number of appearances, but had the least screen time this season. Bad luck, I must say.
Season 5 Did even better than Rainbow Dash and Rarity this season, even with three absences in a row. Plus, also had more dialogue than Applejack.
Season 6 Set another new record for smallest number of appearances in one season in addition to needing more episodes with other characters that there wasn't any room left for solo episodes. What tough luck!
Season 7 Predicted: Expected to do better this season, but only needs one solo episode.
Outcome: Doing very well this season. But so far, maybe a little too well.

Note: Rainbow Dash and Rarity have gotten one appearance more than Pinkie after Season 6 ended. But with both of them getting a few too many absences, Pinkie's catching up fiercely!

Fluttershy

Season 1 Did pretty well this season, with at least four major roles (three from the second half).
Season 2 Not too bad luck, but lost an episode because she just used up her major role with the Cutie Mark Crusaders in Season 1.
Season 3 Did barely better than Rarity, with one major role (though it wasn't quite a solo episode).
Season 4 Did fine, with the same number of appearances as Rarity this season, but with less screen time.
Season 5 Far more bad luck than in previous seasons, but at least had three major roles (including one of the Discord episodes of this season).
Season 6 Bad luck continues with even less appearances than in Season 5.
Season 7 Predicted: Like Pinkie Pie, expected to do a lot better this season, perhaps even having more appearances than she did in Seasons 5 and 6.
Outcome: Doing fine so far this season, having gotten as much dialogue as Rarity.

This blog will be updated again when Season 7 ends late this October.